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Country Risk Reports

  Summary

D& B Country RiskLine reports provide expanded economic, political and commercial analysis essential to minimising the risks associated with foreign trade. Each of the 131 Country Risk Reports provide the following data elements:
D&B Country Risk Indicator
- a unique and comparative cross-border assessment of country business risk.
Usual Terms
- recommended and minimum credit terms and changes in trading regulations.
Transfer Situation
- current payment delays, foreign exchange reserves and import cover.
Exchange Rate
- graph of exchanges rates covering a six month period and table of local exchange rate against four major currencies.
Import Cover
-graph of import cover.
Economic Indicators
-key economic indicators covering three years of historical data and a two-year forecast.
Export Credit Agencies
- a listing of currently available export credit insurance.
Risk Factor
- a concise textual analysis of a country's current political, economic and trading conditions.



   Important Terms

Minimum Terms
The least stringent means of payment deemed necessary by D&B for an exporter to secure payment with a high degree of confidence.
Recommended Terms
D&B’s recommended means of payment. The use of recommended terms, which are generally more stringent than minimum terms, is appropriate when a customer’s payment performance cannot be easily assessed or when an exporter may wish to limit the risk associated with a transaction made on minimum terms.
Usual Terms
Normal period of credit associated with transactions with companies in the stated country.
Local Delays
The time taken beyond agreed terms for a customer to deposit money in their local bank as payment for imports.
FX/Bank Delays
The average time between the placement of payment by the importer in the local banking system and the receipt of funds by the exporter. Such delays may be dependent on foreign exchange controls, foreign exchange availability and the efficiency of the local banking system.
Import Cover
The amount of foreign exchange a country has in relation to the average monthly value of imported goods and services. Only liquid foreign exchange reserves from which a country can service its import requirements are included in this calculation.
Exchange Rates
How much each unit of a particular currency is worth in relation to another.




   COUNTRY RISK INDICATOR EXPLAINED

Dun & Bradstreet's 'DB' risk indicator provides a comparative, cross-border assessment of the risk of doing business in a country. Essentially, the indicator seeks to encapsulate the risk that country-wide factors pose to the predictability of export payments and investment returns over a time horizon of two years. The 'DB' risk indicator comprises a composite index of four over-arching country risk categories:
Political risk
-Internal and external security situation, policy competency and consistency, and other such factors that determine whether a country fosters an enabling business environment;
Commercial risk
-the sanctity of contract, judicial competence, regulatory transparency, degree of systemic corruption, and other such factors that determine whether the business environment facilitates the conduct of commercial transactions;
Macroeconomic risk
-the inflation rate, fiscal deficit, money supply growth and all such macroeconomic factors which determine whether a country is able to deliver sustainable economic growth and a commensurate expansion in business opportunities;
External risk
-the current account balance, capital flows, foreign exchange reserves, size of external debt and all such factors that determine whether a country can generate enough foreign exchange to meet its trade and foreign investment liabilities.


The DB risk indicator is divided into seven bands, ranging from DB1 through DB7. Each band is subdivided into quartiles (a-d), with an a designation representing slightly less risk than a b designation and so on. Only the DB7 indicator is not divided into quartiles.

Indicator Meaning Explanation
DB1 Lowest Risk Lowest degree of uncertainty associated with expected returns, such as export payments, and foreign debt and equity servicing.
DB2 Low Risk Low degree of uncertainty associated with expected returns. However, country-wide factors may result in higher volatility of returns at a future date.
DB3 Slight Risk Enough uncertainty over expected returns to warrant close monitoring of country risk. Customers should actively manage their risk exposures.
DB4 Moderate Risk Significant uncertainty over expected returns. Risk-averse customers are advised to protect against potential losses.
DB5 High Risk Considerable uncertainty associated with expected returns. Businesses are advised to limit their exposure and/or select high-return transactions only.
DB6 Very High Risk Expected returns subject to large degree of volatility. A very high expected return is required to compensate for the additional risk or the cost of hedging such risk.
DB7 Highest Risk Returns are almost impossible to predict with any accuracy. Business infrastructure has, in effect, broken down.

The Trend Indicator
The DB risk indicator is supplemented with a trend indicator which is intended to give the reader a quick-reference guide to whether the risk environment in a country is improving or deteriorating
+ (plus) The Country's overall risk profile is deteriorating due to adverse political, commercial, economic and/or external developments
- (minus) The Country's overall risk profile is improving due to favourable political, commercial, economic and/or external developments
(Blank) If the no trend indicator is shown, the country's overall risk outlook has not changed appreciably, even though some minor changes to its political, commercial, macroeconomic, and/or external risk environment may have occurred.



   Economic Indicators

C/A (Current account) balance, % GDP:
-A measure of a country’s net trade, service, and other non-capital flows.
DSR (Debt service ratio), %:
-The total of a country’s debt interest and principal payments in relation to its annual export revenues.
Fiscal balance, % GDP:
-The public-sector balance expressed as a proportion of total domestic economic output.
GDP growth, %:
-The growth in the total goods and services produced within a country, taking account of inflation.
Inflation, %:
-The increase in consumer prices reported as an end-year or annual average figure.
Investment, % GDP:
-Shows what proportion of total output is directed toward investment.
Manufactures, % GDP:
-Measures the importance of industry within an economy.
Non-oil sector, % GDP:
-Denotes how dependent an economy is on oil.
Oil (US$ p/b):
-Oil price per barrel.
Oil output, ‘000 bpd (barrels per day):
-Average daily output of oil.
Public debt, % GDP:
-Expresses the total public-sector debt in relation to the size of the domestic economy.
Trade balance, % GDP:
-A measure of a country’s net import and export flows.
Unemployment, %:
-The percentage of the registered labour force that is unemployed.



   Glossary

ACP African, Caribbean & Pacific countries (signatories to EU Lomé Convention)
ADP Asian Development Bank
AFTA Asian Free Trade Area
APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum
ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations
BIS Bank for International Settlements
BoP Balance of payments
bp Basis point
bpd Barrels per day
C/A Current account
CAD Cash against documents
CAP Common Agricultural Policy (EU)
CARICOM Caribbean Community
CEFTA Central European Free-Trade Area
CiA Cash in advance
c.i.f. Carriage, insurance, freight
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
C L/C Confirmed letter of credit (all irrevocable)
COMESA Common Market of East & Southern Africa
CPI Consumer price index
CWP Claims waiting period
DSR Debt service ratio (as proportion of exports)
EAC East African Cooperation
EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction & Development
ECA Export credit agency
ECGD Export Credits Guarantee Department (UK)
ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
ECU European Currency Unit
EEA European Economic Area (EU & EFTA)
EFF Extended Fund Facility (IMF)
EFTA European Free-Trade Association
EMS European Monetary System
EMU Economic and Monetary Union
EPZ Export processing zone (for example, maquiladora plants in Latin America)
ERM Exchange Rate Mechanism (EMS)
ESAF Extended Structural Adjustment Facility
EU European Union
Eximbank Export Import Bank (US)
FDI Foreign direct investment
f.o.b. Free on board
FSU Former Soviet Union
FX Foreign exchange
FY Financial year
FYP Five-year plan
G7 Group of Seven Industrial Nations (US, UK, Germany, Japan, France, Italy & Canada)
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GNP Gross National Product
govt Government
GSP Generalised System of Preferences
H1; H2 First half; second half
HS Harmonised Commodity Description & Coding System
IADB Inter-American Development Bank
ICC International Chamber of Commerce
IFC International Finance Corporation
IMF International Monetary Fund
IPD Import permit declaration
JV Joint venture
L/C Letter of credit (all irrevocable)
LDC Less developed country
LT Long-term
Mercosur Southern Cone Common Market (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay)
MFN Most favoured nation
MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
MITI Ministry of International Trade & Industry
m/m Month-on-month
MT Medium-term
NAFTA North American Free-Trade Agreement
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
NCM Nederlandsche Credietverzekering Mij. (Dutch-owned UK export credit agency)
NIC Newly industrialised countries
OA Open account
OAU Organisation of African Unity
OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development
OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries
OSCE Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (formerly CSCE)
parl. Parliament
p/b Per barrel
PLO Palestine Liberation Organisation
PM Prime Minister
PSBR Public sector borrowing requirement
Q1-Q4 First quarter to fourth quarter
q/q Quarter-on-quarter
S&;ampP Standard &;amp Poor's
SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
SACU Southern African Customs Union
SADC Southern African Development & Cooperation
SD Sight draft
SDR Special drawing rights (IMF)
SGS Société Générale de Surveillance
SOE State-owned enterprise
ST Short-term
TI Euler Trade Indemnity
UCP Uniform Customs & Practice for Documentary Credits (ICC)
UN United Nations
VAT Value added tax
VP Vice President
WB World Bank
WTO World Trade Organisation
y/y Year-on-year